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Long lines at gas pump unlikely, but Middle East crisis could disrupt oil supplies_我的网站

一 |     　　8月19日，A股正式迎来“人形机器人第一股”宇树科技。

二 | 从2025年的那一场春晚开始，整个世界已经通过官方视频、社交媒体、各类公司年会表演甚至演唱会，充分领略了宇树机器人的运动能力。但通往具身智能终局的路上，王者的皇冠上仍有一颗宝石缺失，那就是机器人的“大脑”——世界模型。
　　这次IPO，模型研发成了宇树最大的单一募投方向：42.02亿元募集资金中，20.22亿元投向智能机器人模型研发项目，11.10亿元用于机器人本体研发，其余资金用于新型智能机器人产品开发和智能机器人制造基地建设。

三 | 　　上市次日，王兴兴在世界机器人大会（WRC）上，回顾了宇树的模型研发之路——“在2020年年初，我们就开始做基于视频生成的世界模型方向，当时做的效果不是特别理想，中间搁置了一段时间。    WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。”他透露，去年公司再次聚焦这一方向。“我们对AI模型的投入一直是非常大的，应该是公司目前资金和人力投入最大的一个方向。”　　时间倒回宇树上市前一天，工信部科技司副司长甘小斌在中国人工智能产业发展联盟第十八次全会的致辞中指出，下一步将把握变革机遇，一体化推进技术创新、应用落地、生态培育、安全治理，包括要以技术攻关为驱动，加快智能芯片等关键核心技术攻关，探索类脑智能、世界模型、物理模型等前沿技术。

四 | 　　▌为何是世界模型？　　在2026世界人工智能大会（WAIC2026）上，行业专家已形成标准化界定，区分“视觉生成模型”与“物理原生世界模型”。　　真正面向物理世界的世界模型作为AI的物理直觉引擎，核心能力不是渲染画面，而是预测动作发生后的世界真实状态，遵循动力学、空间、力学、因果客观规律。其四大必备能力包括：多模态融合感知的能力、物理规律认知的能力、因果长时序推理的能力、闭环自迭代的能力。　　其运作的完整智能链路为看见环境→推演世界变化→预判自身动作后果→执行动作→采集真实反馈更新模型。　　在8月19日的宇树上市答谢午宴和次日2026世界机器人大会上，王兴兴都在发言中都谈到了宇树最近在做的一件事：物理AI机器人模型自进化。　　让AI模型自行编写机器人的控制代码，随后在仿真环境进行训练和验证，再放到真机中进行反馈分析。他表示，基础模型越强，自进化能力越强；多源数据越规模化，自进化的规模效应越明显；真机部署越多，数据积累和能力迭代也会越快，技能累加扩展，走向规模化技能生态。　　这种“真机-数据-模型”的闭环，正是物理AI行业的一大主要技术趋势，也解释了为何宇树会瞄准世界模型。

五 | 　　中信建投研报显示，物理AI正接棒成为下一阶段AI增长的核心变量。物理世界数据作为贯穿感知至反馈的关键引擎，面临巨大需求刚性缺口。受制于保真、规模与成本的“不可能三角”，物理世界数据获取倒逼行业有望迎来三重变革：商业模式端通过社会化众包采数，技术范式端依托世界模型虚拟造数，资产属性端跃升为企业高溢价核心无形资产。

六 | 　　其中，技术环节，基于“种子数据为基、世界模型扩容、持续学习闭环”战略，打造“虚拟扩容与持续闭环”的造数引擎，打破物理时空限制，将商业侧采集到的种子数据实现指数级放大。　　▌巨头混战　　当然，世界模型早已不是新概念，从科技巨头到技术大牛，都早已挤上了这条赛道。　　比如英伟达今年6月发布了“全能”世界模型Cosmos 3，是全球首个完全开源的全能模型，黄仁勋表示“得益于多模态推理语言、视觉和世界模型的突破，物理AI爆发式增长指日可待”；谷歌此前发布Genie 3，可实时生成交互式3D环境，除了游戏外还能为机器人或自动驾驶系统提供多元化训练场景。

七 | “AI教母”李飞飞、Meta前首席AI科学家杨立昆各自创办的初创公司，也都是瞄准了世界模型。　　谷歌DeepMind首席执行官兼联合创始人Demis Hassabis去年末还曾直言，世界模型是他彼时投入最多时间的领域，世界模型将是通往AGI的关键部分。　　站在当前，世界模型可以说还是处于较为初期的发展阶段，技术发展路径仍是一片“混战”。

八 | 分析师按照技术定位，将各家的世界模型划分为三大类：通用底座型、垂直专用型与跨域复用型。　　通用底座型以能力输出为核心，其中，通用时空认知基座专注物理规律与因果推演，代表性模型包括英伟达Cosmos 3、Meta V-JEPA 2、Google Genie 3；场景仿真型底座面向特定范畴提供标准化仿真基建，代表性模型包括国外的Runway GWM-1、World Labs Marble，国内的腾讯HY-World 2.0、阿里HappyOyster等。　　垂直专用型锁定单一场景，自动驾驶领域以Waabi Copilot4D、Wayve GAIA、蔚来NWM等为代表，具身智能以1X World Model、流形空间WorldScape 0.2、高德ABot-PhysWorld等为代表。　　跨域复用型作为产业新趋势，以特斯拉FSD World Simulator和小米MiMo-Embodied为代表，头部厂商率先构建横跨自动驾驶与具身智能的统一潜空间，实现技术与数据的跨场景协同。　　世界模型为物理系统提供了两类关键能力，一是在行动前进行推演和风险预判，二是生成大规模合成训练数据，缓解真实世界数据采集昂贵且危险的问题。

九 | 　　国泰海通证券认为，虽然现在世界模型多是技术产业案例，但其政策含义非常直接：谁掌握世界模型，谁就更有机会定义下一代机器人、自动驾驶与工业AI训练方式。　　分析师进一步指出，世界模型的竞争本质是“下一代智能基础设施”定义权之争。AI竞争重心正从“大语言模型”转向“物理AI”，世界模型作为机器人与物理世界交互的“认知引擎”，已成为全球政策新焦点。　　高质量数据集、仿真平台、训练算力和真实场景验证都需要长期投入，而且一旦形成平台，将产生显著的生态锁定。因而，世界模型不可能完全依赖碎片化创业公司自发演进，最终必然向国家主权AI框架、龙头科技平台和场景型大型企业集中。

十 | （文章来源：财联社）。

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